ChatGPT helpfully suggests a way of making the inability to determine the missile’s origin more plausible.
A launch from a submersible “ghost” barge towed into the Sea of Japan/East Sea during peak fishing activity that’s immediately scuttled.
It suggests some jargony dialogue:
“OPIR confirms a sea-surface cold launch—short burn, solid motor. Launch box centered 40.1 North, 135.7 East. AIS was dark across the box; IUSS has transient noise but no class match. Best call: sea-launched, origin unknown.”
Appreciate the discussion. CEIP interviewed Noah Oppenheim, the screenwriter (you can see it on their Youtube channel); basically he says that they didn't want to represent a specific adversary who launched since he wanted the audience to focus on how the system worked and the fragilities therein as opposed to focusing on the "bad guy". But as you guys discuss, there's so many problems with the depiction of the system and the scenario itself that this falls pretty badly. I was also rolling my eyes with the stereotypical LeMay/Powers-esque STRATCOM commander depiction.
Side note on nukes in pop culture - not a film but the episodes in Yes Prime Minister on Trident and salami-slicing have quite a bit of accuracy and are also hilarious.
Yeah it wasn't great on the realism, even I could tell that. Also I agree with a lot of the aesthetic criticisms from viewers: the three timelines weren't different enough to be interesting, so it was like watching an inconclusive 40-minute movie three times in a row.
The one thing I thought was interesting about the movie turned out to be unintended, and not something other people saw in it. I initially thought that the president's voice sounded enough like Trump's that he was supposed to be Trump. Then when it turned out to be Idris I was like "Oh cool, they faked us out by having Idris do a Trump impression, that's pretty interesting." But then nobody else felt this way about the voice. Maybe I just need to get my hearing checked.
I was thinking they would probably launch more than two interceptors against a single incoming missile. But is it really right to say that the odds of success are very high at that point? The failure probability of one interceptor is probably not independent from that of the other interceptors, so the probability won't just be 1-(P(one failure)^N).
Thanks for this discussion! I particularly agree with your criticisms of the movie's realism and suggest it was pushing a nonproliferation agenda through dramatic presentation. Ironically, as noted, it ends up being an advertisement for Golden Dome. The screenwriter says he talked to STRATCOM people but obviously they ignored or missed a lot. Good talk.
What, not even a mention of the Wolf's Cry, a French movie I personally loathe, but in so many ways suffering from the very same flawed assumptions (maybe even worse sometimes) and wildly unrealistic depictions?
Threads especially is really something. I was surprised nobody listed that as their favorite in the episode!
Even for those of us (and I certainly include myself) who see secure deterrence as essential in the present day, it's important to have a vivid picture of the risks. That makes movies like Threads and Day After very important, and I always show both to my students before we start talking about strategy. I hope someone makes an up-to-date movie along similar lines.
I've often thought that it would be great if someone made a movie that vividly portrayed an all-out Indo-Pakistani war and its aftermath.
So there's a somewhat dated Bollywood movie called "Parmanu" on the Pokhran tests that is worth watching, and then a more recent spy thriller on a fictional Indian agents attempts to uncover a secret Pakistani nuclear weapons program in the 1970s. As far as I know, there isn't a movie on a hypothetical South Asia nuclear war, but that would be top on my watch list if it were ever made.
Further afield from Austin's good recommendations...
I don't think we touched on "Thirteen Days" in our podcast, which I thought was an excellent (if abbreviated) recap of the Cuban Missile Crisis from the U.S. decision making perspective. "The Spy Who Loved Me" is perhaps the most Cold War, nuclear weapons-oriented Bond movie, alongside "Thunderball." Wouldn't recommend either for educational purposes. Vipin mentioned Mission Impossible Fallout, and I mentioned The Sum of All Fears and The Peacemaker, which have "loose nukes" and some "rogue actor causes WW3" dynamics. But none quite capture the Cold War style nuclear competition and risks as the list Austin provided.
Less popular shows "Last Resort" and "The Last Ship" both touch on post-cataclysm events with WMD implications. I watched part of Last Resort primarily because Andre Braugher is an amazing actor... Maybe I'll pick that up again.
Lots of nuclear deterrence dynamics at play in the sci-fi show The Expanse (based on a book series). I highly recommend it.
Great discussion
ChatGPT helpfully suggests a way of making the inability to determine the missile’s origin more plausible.
A launch from a submersible “ghost” barge towed into the Sea of Japan/East Sea during peak fishing activity that’s immediately scuttled.
It suggests some jargony dialogue:
“OPIR confirms a sea-surface cold launch—short burn, solid motor. Launch box centered 40.1 North, 135.7 East. AIS was dark across the box; IUSS has transient noise but no class match. Best call: sea-launched, origin unknown.”
Of course, the motive is still foggy.
Appreciate the discussion. CEIP interviewed Noah Oppenheim, the screenwriter (you can see it on their Youtube channel); basically he says that they didn't want to represent a specific adversary who launched since he wanted the audience to focus on how the system worked and the fragilities therein as opposed to focusing on the "bad guy". But as you guys discuss, there's so many problems with the depiction of the system and the scenario itself that this falls pretty badly. I was also rolling my eyes with the stereotypical LeMay/Powers-esque STRATCOM commander depiction.
Side note on nukes in pop culture - not a film but the episodes in Yes Prime Minister on Trident and salami-slicing have quite a bit of accuracy and are also hilarious.
Yeah it wasn't great on the realism, even I could tell that. Also I agree with a lot of the aesthetic criticisms from viewers: the three timelines weren't different enough to be interesting, so it was like watching an inconclusive 40-minute movie three times in a row.
The one thing I thought was interesting about the movie turned out to be unintended, and not something other people saw in it. I initially thought that the president's voice sounded enough like Trump's that he was supposed to be Trump. Then when it turned out to be Idris I was like "Oh cool, they faked us out by having Idris do a Trump impression, that's pretty interesting." But then nobody else felt this way about the voice. Maybe I just need to get my hearing checked.
I was thinking they would probably launch more than two interceptors against a single incoming missile. But is it really right to say that the odds of success are very high at that point? The failure probability of one interceptor is probably not independent from that of the other interceptors, so the probability won't just be 1-(P(one failure)^N).
Sorry, I think it sucked.
Thanks for this discussion! I particularly agree with your criticisms of the movie's realism and suggest it was pushing a nonproliferation agenda through dramatic presentation. Ironically, as noted, it ends up being an advertisement for Golden Dome. The screenwriter says he talked to STRATCOM people but obviously they ignored or missed a lot. Good talk.
Thanks Al, we gave you a shout-out but I failed to link to your Substack in the show notes. Just edited our post to do so.
What, not even a mention of the Wolf's Cry, a French movie I personally loathe, but in so many ways suffering from the very same flawed assumptions (maybe even worse sometimes) and wildly unrealistic depictions?
Great discussion guys, as always!
I would be curious to hear you guys' top 10 nuclear war movies, if you ever have occasion to comment on that! I'm a huge fan of the genre.
We mentioned a few but here are links to some of mine where nuclear war actually happens (as opposed to nearly happens)
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dr._Strangelove
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/By_Dawn%27s_Early_Light
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Miracle_Mile_(film)
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Day_After
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Threads_(1984_film)
(Both Threads and the Day After are advocacy films but powerfully done)
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/On_the_Beach_(1959_film)
Threads especially is really something. I was surprised nobody listed that as their favorite in the episode!
Even for those of us (and I certainly include myself) who see secure deterrence as essential in the present day, it's important to have a vivid picture of the risks. That makes movies like Threads and Day After very important, and I always show both to my students before we start talking about strategy. I hope someone makes an up-to-date movie along similar lines.
I've often thought that it would be great if someone made a movie that vividly portrayed an all-out Indo-Pakistani war and its aftermath.
So there's a somewhat dated Bollywood movie called "Parmanu" on the Pokhran tests that is worth watching, and then a more recent spy thriller on a fictional Indian agents attempts to uncover a secret Pakistani nuclear weapons program in the 1970s. As far as I know, there isn't a movie on a hypothetical South Asia nuclear war, but that would be top on my watch list if it were ever made.
Further afield from Austin's good recommendations...
I don't think we touched on "Thirteen Days" in our podcast, which I thought was an excellent (if abbreviated) recap of the Cuban Missile Crisis from the U.S. decision making perspective. "The Spy Who Loved Me" is perhaps the most Cold War, nuclear weapons-oriented Bond movie, alongside "Thunderball." Wouldn't recommend either for educational purposes. Vipin mentioned Mission Impossible Fallout, and I mentioned The Sum of All Fears and The Peacemaker, which have "loose nukes" and some "rogue actor causes WW3" dynamics. But none quite capture the Cold War style nuclear competition and risks as the list Austin provided.
Less popular shows "Last Resort" and "The Last Ship" both touch on post-cataclysm events with WMD implications. I watched part of Last Resort primarily because Andre Braugher is an amazing actor... Maybe I'll pick that up again.
Lots of nuclear deterrence dynamics at play in the sci-fi show The Expanse (based on a book series). I highly recommend it.
Thirteen Days, Crimson Tide, Hunt are great movies I screen for undergrads along with Strangelove.
Underrated and oft forgotten nuke movie is The Peacemaker imho!